Mash-Up Ahead? Potato Prices Could Heat Up at Farmers Markets

Recent developments in U.S. potato trade negotiations could significantly impact farmers markets, vendors, and consumers. The National Potato Council (NPC) is advocating for expanded market access, particularly in Japan, which could lead to increased demand for U.S. potatoes and potential changes in pricing and availability at local markets.

Potential Tariff Implications

Discussions around potential tariffs, especially with major trading partners like Mexico and Canada, are ongoing. While these tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, they could lead to retaliatory measures, affecting the supply chain and potentially increasing costs for vendors and consumers at farmers markets.

Impact on Farmers Markets

For farmers markets, these trade dynamics mean vendors may experience fluctuations in supply and pricing. An increase in export demand could lead to higher prices domestically, affecting the affordability of potatoes for consumers. Conversely, if tariffs lead to decreased exports, there could be an oversupply domestically, potentially lowering prices but also impacting farmers’ revenues.

Looking Ahead

As trade negotiations continue, farmers market stakeholders should stay informed about policy changes. Understanding these developments will be crucial for vendors in planning their supply and pricing strategies, and for consumers in anticipating potential changes in product availability and cost.

Tomayto, Tomahto: Whatever you Call It – Trade Tussle Could Affect Farmers Markets

A proposed shift in U.S. tomato trade policy has sparked significant debate, with potential implications for farmers markets, vendors, and consumers.

Background on the Suspension Agreement

Since 1996, the U.S. and Mexico have maintained a series of suspension agreements to regulate the import of Mexican tomatoes, aiming to prevent market disruptions. The most recent, established in 2019, set reference prices for Mexican tomato imports to address concerns over dumping—selling products below market value.

Calls for Termination

In June 2023, the Florida Tomato Exchange (FTE) petitioned the U.S. Department of Commerce to terminate the 2019 agreement. The FTE argues that the agreement has failed to prevent unfair trade practices, leading to a decline in the domestic tomato industry. They cite a shift in market share, noting that U.S. growers supplied about 80% of the domestic market in 1994, compared to approximately 30% today, with Mexican imports filling the gap. The FTE contends that antidumping duties are necessary to protect American growers.

Opposition to Termination

Conversely, the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas (FPAA) and companies like NatureSweet advocate for maintaining the agreement. They warn that ending it could lead to increased market volatility, higher prices, and supply chain disruptions. The FPAA emphasizes that the agreement provides stability through established reference prices, and its termination could result in retroactive duties and increased costs for importers.

Implications for Farmers Markets

For farmers markets, particularly those in regions like California, the outcome of this policy debate is crucial. Termination of the agreement could lead to higher tomato prices and reduced availability, affecting vendors who rely on consistent supply and pricing. Consumers may face increased costs, and the variety of tomatoes available could diminish, impacting the overall market experience.

Looking Ahead

As of mid-December 2023, the Department of Commerce had not announced a decision regarding the agreement’s future. Stakeholders across the supply chain are closely monitoring the situation, understanding that the resolution will have far-reaching effects on pricing, availability, and the dynamics of local markets.

Inflation Reshapes Fresh Produce Buying Habits: Opportunities for Farmers Markets

According to The Packer’s Fresh Trends 2024 survey, 68% of U.S. consumers are purchasing a greater variety of fresh produce than 20 years ago. However, inflation is influencing spending habits, with 89% of shoppers believing they are paying more for fresh produce than last year.

Key Insights for Farmers Markets

  • Shoppers Are Adapting to Higher Costs: While 55% of consumers are maintaining or increasing their fresh produce intake, 31% report buying less, and 45% expect to cut back due to inflation. Some are switching to lower-cost items, while 11% are growing their own.
  • Organic and Packaged Produce See Declines: One-third of consumers are buying less organic produce, while berries (33%) and packaged items (31%) have also taken a hit.
  • Retailer Competition Is Growing: 46% of shoppers are actively comparing prices, and 12% are switching to lower-priced retailers.

Top-Selling Produce & Market Opportunities

Bananas remain the most-purchased fresh produce item, with 82% of consumers buying them in the past year—edging out apples (78%) and tomatoes (64%). Other widely purchased items include grapes (63%), carrots (61%), potatoes (60%), onions (60%), and strawberries (60%).

Farmers market vendors should highlight these high-demand staples while promoting affordable, locally grown options to attract cost-conscious shoppers. Additionally, offering competitive pricing on organic and packaged produce may help recover sales lost to inflation.

With price sensitivity increasing, farmers market sponsors and managers can enhance consumer engagement through pricing transparency, bundle deals, and promotions on in-season, high-demand items. Adapting to these shifting trends will help sustain and grow fresh produce sales despite inflationary pressures.

Most-Purchased Fresh Produce (Past 12 Months)

Produce% PurchasedProduce% Purchased
Bananas82%Green beans35%
Apples78%Sweetpotatoes34%
Tomatoes64%Limes33%
Grapes63%Blackberries33%
Carrots61%Cauliflower33%
Potatoes60%Cantaloupe33%
Onions60%Green onion31%
Strawberries60%Raspberries28%
Bell peppers58%Pears27%
Blueberries54%Clementines/Mandarins26%
Broccoli53%Mangoes25%
Cucumbers52%Brussels sprouts23%
Avocados51%Specialty peppers23%
Watermelon51%Plums21%
Oranges49%Squash20%
Lemons47%Honeydew19%
Celery43%Kiwifruit18%
Garlic42%Nectarines17%
Lettuce (bulk)42%Grapefruit17%
Salad mix40%Eggplant16%
Corn on the cob39%Kale16%
Mushrooms39%Radishes13%
Pineapple38%Beets13%
Cherries37%Cranberries12%
Peaches37%Apricots12%
Cabbage37%Asian pears11%
Asparagus37%Pomegranates10%
Spinach36%Papayas10%
Sprouts10%
Artichokes10%
Specialty mushrooms9%
Pluots3%